Saturday, August 11, 2012

Analysis: Veep Pick Gives Obama 4 to 8 points Back


Alan V_thumbAlan Vera graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Loyola University with a minor in military science. He served as an Army Airborne Ranger in special operations and lectures nationally on political issues and business strategies.

The selection of Paul Ryan as Vice President

RESULT:  The GOP gives back 4-8 percentage points.

This assessment is not at all related to my role with True the Vote, a non-partisan, grassroots effort to restore election integrity. This assessment is from my perspective as a magna cum laude graduate in Political Science. It is not about right and wrong. It is not about constitutionality. It is not about whether
or not Paul Ryan is a good man, a fiscal conservative or a real patriot.

This is purely about Political Science as it relates to running campaigns and winning elections.

We have two major political parties in the U.S. We have the “corrupt party” and the “stupid party.” In the last two weeks the Communist Party has furthered its reputation as corrupt with the Obama PAC TV spot accusing Mitt Romney of causing the death of a woman from cancer and the laughable statements from Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Deborah Whatshername Schultz.

From the perspective of Political Science, last night and this morning the GOP proved once again why it has earned the title “the stupid party.” Last night in the White House Chief of Staff Valerie Jarrett and DNC Chair Debbie Whatshername Schultz were exchanging high fives over the GOP selection. Joe Biden tried to join in, but kept missing and hitting Debbie on the forehead. Fortunately, Debbie was stoned as usual and didn’t notice.

I look at the same polls that Dick Morris sees. In the swing/battleground states Romney has been ahead and has been gaining momentum. The selection of Paul Ryan will give back to the Commies somewhere between 4-8 percentage points of the popular vote. At this time I can’t tell what impact that has on the electoral vote.

Unbelievably, the GOP has played right into the hands of the CommieCrat narrative that the GOP:

  1. Is White.
  2. Is Male.
  3. Is Wealthy.
  4. Cares more about cutting taxes for the rich than helping the poor and elderly with their medical needs.

It doesn’t matter whether any of the above is true or not. It matters that the CommieCrats are EXPERTS at selling this narrative and that the stupid party missed a key chance to eliminate one or two of the key CommieCrat talking points. They will make good use of these fables to re-gain lost ground.

(For perspective, I subscribe under assumed names to the email newsletters of every Commie elected official in East Texas. By 10:00 a.m. CDT this morning each of them had sent out their email blast attacking Paul Ryan and the GOP with the very talking points I’ve summarized above.)

Let’s examine the problem further.


The stupid party has absolutely NO CLUE how to play OFFENSE. It is ALWAYS on the defensive, defending itself against CommieCrat initiatives, always allowing the Commies to play OFFENSE.

The selection of Paul Ryan was a typical GOP defensive move. How?

Ryan does not offend the key base of GOP financial contributors. The GOP believes MONEY is the key to winning any election, so their base of contributors is of highest priority. Picking Ryan defends the financial base.

As a favorite son, Ryan helps the GOP defend its recent gains in the swing state of Wisconsin.

Paul Ryan has NEVER said anything memorable, let alone controversial. So the GOP has defended itself against haunting echoes of any memorable speech.

The GOP has made some gains among fiscally conservative Tea Party types. Paul Ryan is associated with some efforts to slow down government growth (not reverse it), and this helps the GOP defend its gains among conservative activists.

Now the GOP will again find itself defending Paul Ryan’s budget bills against accusations that he was going to “push grandma off the cliff on medical benefits.”


20% of legally registered voters are avowed Progressive/Communists. They cannot be moved.

40% of legally registered voters identify themselves as “conservative,” and will likely vote with the GOP.

That means that the election battle is for the 40% in the middle.

Half of this middle group (20%) is the “ill informed” segment. Though they claim generally Christian and conservative values, they swallow all the crap that the Commies throw out there. They buy the “social justice” crap through their churches and drink the Kool-Aid on most welfare issues. The GOP is probably incapable of “de-programming this group, and they can easily go with the CommieCrats.

So now it’s 40/40 for the GOP and the Commies. The battle comes down to the remaining 10%. These are the “un-informed.” They don’t care about politics. They don’t do any research for themselves. They think politics is boring. But they watch TV and are, therefore, subject to the lies and distortions broadcast by the state run media. And, they do turn out to vote every so often.

Polls have shown that Obama has lost 10-15 percentage points of his previously strong black voting base. With an all-white ticket on the GOP side, the Commies have a good chance to recover some of that lost ground on purely racial propaganda.

Polls have also shown that enthusiasm among Black voters for Obama has waned and the likely voter turnout will not be as high in 2012 as it was in 2008. Ryan’s selection gives the Commies a chance to re-invigorate and re-energize that base, again purely along the lines of race and a threat to welfare entitlements.


The GOP will again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory UNLESS it breaks tradition and goes on OFFENSE, quickly adopts and organizes grassroots tactics and spends every penny it has exposing Obama with no holds barred.

In the just-completed Texas GOP primary for U.S. Senate, the RINO Texas Lieutenant Governor played the part of the CommieCrats. He attacked Tea Party Ted Cruz with vicious TV ads very much like what the Commies will use against the GOP ticket between now and November.

Cruz countered with a massive, Tea-Party-led grassroots effort that involved literally thousands of hours of block walking by dedicated conservatives who countered every Dewhurst advertising point in one-on- one discussions on the front porches of voters.

Though out-spent by $29 Million, the Cruz campaign pulled off a 14 percentage point win. Cruz even had campaigners at every single voting location reaching the “un-informed” voters and literally winning votes on the asphalt just outside the voting area. It worked. Grassroots work can overcome mass media every time.

I don’t know whether or not the GOP understands this. I suspect that the establishment of the party will remain the stupid party. If Obama is to be defeated in November, it will not be because the GOP did anything right. It will be because conservative activists across the country get off their asses, out of their homes and into the neighborhoods and community centers to educate the “un-informed voters” (10%) on the truth about the candidates.


Does Paul Ryan’s selection improve the GOP’s chances of winning in November? No.

I like Paul Ryan. I’ve read his bills. I think he’s smart. I think he’s a good guy.

I heard him speak at the Texas GOP Convention in Fort Worth in June. He was very informative. He was very knowledgeable. He was very boring.

The stupid party is not capable of beating Hussein Obama. They will try over and over to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If Hussein is to be defeated, it will be up to “We the People” to make it happen.

So what else is new?



Why are you allowing the libs attacks to blur your choice??
Sounds like you're the one on defense . . .

Alan, I know you. I love you. But I disagree.

Even so, extremely well written. Most impressive. It's just that I give more credit to the American people who are seeing who Obama is. I stand on my original assessment. The numbers voting against Obama will be staggering. History making. A tsunami.



well written Alan enough so to get the formerly lazy electorate out to attempt to reducate all on their own? I hope so, because that is who its up to. I can count 8 people who i believe i may have helped see the light it has always been our responsibility as the educated electorate to do this. ands for full disclosure i was once the uninformed uncaring, as I think we all were. some people just need a little prodding from time to time and that is what our system was set up to do. Obama is a symptom of the disease of liberalism the disease itself starts in pre-school and contiinues through college. that is where the answer lies.

Are you always this negative? Ever heard of having faith and standing up for what you believe in? Praying for the dark cloud above your head to pass over....

4 to 8 points, huh? They taught you that at Loyola did they? To pull statistics out of your fourth point of contact? I thought the Jesuits would be a little more rigorous in their quantitative thinking than that.

P.S. Anyone who feels the need to remind you twice in the first two paragraphs that he graduated magna cum laude is a tool, and should be disregarded forthwith.

P.P.S. What's the matter? Couldn't make summa?

Perhaps you should go by "loud and ignorant." As you see the header which is italicized was supplied by The article itself was written by the guest author.

I'd also be embarrassed if I was you not offering a single quantitative objection to the underlying assumptions. Instead, like a intellectually challenged coward who hides behind his Road Runner alias, you not only don't give us your real name and education credentials to give us any credibility - you lob kindergarten taunts like a sissy. I'm sure this decorated war hero isn't the slightest bit bothered by such a childish reply.

"If Obama is to be defeated in November, it will not be because the GOP did anything right. It will be because conservative activists across the country get off their asses, out of their homes and into the neighborhoods and community centers to educate the “un-informed voters” (10%) on the truth about the candidates."
I think the selection of Ryan may be enough motivation to get my ass out of the comfort of my home ;-)
I agree with your assessment. However, I think the greassroot efforts will be stronger than you think. Thank you for the honesty of your analysis.

Sez You "Paul Ryan has NEVER said anything memorable, let alone controversial" laughable statement. Where did Politijim pick you up at? I'm sorry, we are our worse enemy -look at the picture that is placed with the potential President of the USA. Effective, yes- also, outrageous - Giving this person space for his spew is shameful and only helps the commie side - Can't get over the comment 'Ryan has NEVER said anything memorable- Can you google MR.
Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science? And,you think this choice gives it to Obama, no, it will be the Millions of illegals that Obama recently gave free pass to and the stolen votes that pushes him to continue his presidency, not the Paul Ryan pick. As for your Military service,thank You. But, so does buffoon, Sen McCain have military service,and so? This has no bearing and I will not give you a pass on this article. I'm glad Politijim found a new friend. I'm not impressed with you or your credentials - just another educated fool

Here "Alan Vera graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science"is a Paul Ryan memorable quote" Paul Ryan to Obama: You realize your bill is a fiscal disaster, right? (Hot Air » Blog Archive » WWW.OBAMAKOOLAIDE.COM ) We need to come together or this nitpicking, posturing, will give fuel to the Obama campaign and four more years of misery. I notice no matter how nutty the left is, they back each other up. Most recent, Nutty Pelosi backed up Nutty Harry's claim of Mitt is not paying taxes(they know better, Mitt paid over 7M lst two years) but they have an cohesiveness our side could take a look at, especially at this time,when it comes to turning this country back to the Constitutional Government. Stop with the ugly pictures, stop with the ripping apart, and come together for our sake.

Another Paul Ryan memorable
Ryan: "'Hope and Change' has become 'Attack and Blame.'"

BHO - NDAA, Larry Sinclair's "Obama Sex, Drugs and Murder" video on YouTube,

Message to Alan, what's your twitter name, I've got material for you, responding to your insult 'Ryan has NEVER said anything memorable' Ryan talks in NC with lots to say that is MEMORABLE. If you aren't with us, you are against us. Along with the article,the picture stinks, Jim -shame on you You are doing the same as Glenn Beck did during the Newt smear. We need support or you are part of the problem

This is a great article. And I think that you try to get this analysis to Romney/Paul campaign. I believe that Romney/Ryan have to get the truth out about Obama...all of it and his ideology that is so damaging to our Republic. I will share this with my friends. Thank you Alan.

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