Analysis: Veep Pick Gives Obama 4 to 8 points Back

Alan Vera graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Loyola University with a minor in military science. He served as an Army Airborne Ranger in special operations and lectures nationally on political issues and business strategies.

The selection of Paul Ryan as Vice President

RESULT:  The GOP gives back 4-8 percentage points.

This assessment is not at all related to my role with True the Vote, a non-partisan, grassroots effort to restore election integrity. This assessment is from my perspective as a magna cum laude graduate in Political Science. It is not about right and wrong. It is not about constitutionality. It is not about whether
or not Paul Ryan is a good man, a fiscal conservative or a real patriot.

This is purely about Political Science as it relates to running campaigns and winning elections.

We have two major political parties in the U.S. We have the “corrupt party” and the “stupid party.” In the last two weeks the Communist Party has furthered its reputation as corrupt with the Obama PAC TV spot accusing Mitt Romney of causing the death of a woman from cancer and the laughable statements from Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Deborah Whatshername Schultz.

From the perspective of Political Science, last night and this morning the GOP proved once again why it has earned the title “the stupid party.” Last night in the White House Chief of Staff Valerie Jarrett and DNC Chair Debbie Whatshername Schultz were exchanging high fives over the GOP selection. Joe Biden tried to join in, but kept missing and hitting Debbie on the forehead. Fortunately, Debbie was stoned as usual and didn’t notice.

I look at the same polls that Dick Morris sees. In the swing/battleground states Romney has been ahead and has been gaining momentum. The selection of Paul Ryan will give back to the Commies somewhere between 4-8 percentage points of the popular vote. At this time I can’t tell what impact that has on the electoral vote.

Unbelievably, the GOP has played right into the hands of the CommieCrat narrative that the GOP:

1. Is White.
2. Is Male.
3. Is Wealthy.
4. Cares more about cutting taxes for the rich than helping the poor and elderly with their medical needs.

It doesn’t matter whether any of the above is true or not. It matters that the CommieCrats are EXPERTS at selling this narrative and that the stupid party missed a key chance to eliminate one or two of the key CommieCrat talking points. They will make good use of these fables to re-gain lost ground.

(For perspective, I subscribe under assumed names to the email newsletters of every Commie elected official in East Texas. By 10:00 a.m. CDT this morning each of them had sent out their email blast attacking Paul Ryan and the GOP with the very talking points I’ve summarized above.)

Let’s examine the problem further.

THE GOP STRATEGY

The stupid party has absolutely NO CLUE how to play OFFENSE. It is ALWAYS on the defensive, defending itself against CommieCrat initiatives, always allowing the Commies to play OFFENSE.

The selection of Paul Ryan was a typical GOP defensive move. How?

Ryan does not offend the key base of GOP financial contributors. The GOP believes MONEY is the key to winning any election, so their base of contributors is of highest priority. Picking Ryan defends the financial base.

As a favorite son, Ryan helps the GOP defend its recent gains in the swing state of Wisconsin.

Paul Ryan has NEVER said anything memorable, let alone controversial. So the GOP has defended itself against haunting echoes of any memorable speech.

The GOP has made some gains among fiscally conservative Tea Party types. Paul Ryan is associated with some efforts to slow down government growth (not reverse it), and this helps the GOP defend its gains among conservative activists.

Now the GOP will again find itself defending Paul Ryan’s budget bills against accusations that he was going to “push grandma off the cliff on medical benefits.”

THE VOTER SEGMENT BATTLEGROUND

20% of legally registered voters are avowed Progressive/Communists. They cannot be moved.

40% of legally registered voters identify themselves as “conservative,” and will likely vote with the GOP.

That means that the election battle is for the 40% in the middle.

Half of this middle group (20%) is the “ill informed” segment. Though they claim generally Christian and conservative values, they swallow all the crap that the Commies throw out there. They buy the “social justice” crap through their churches and drink the Kool-Aid on most welfare issues. The GOP is probably incapable of “de-programming this group, and they can easily go with the CommieCrats.

So now it’s 40/40 for the GOP and the Commies. The battle comes down to the remaining 10%. These are the “un-informed.” They don’t care about politics. They don’t do any research for themselves. They think politics is boring. But they watch TV and are, therefore, subject to the lies and distortions broadcast by the state run media. And, they do turn out to vote every so often.

Polls have shown that Obama has lost 10-15 percentage points of his previously strong black voting base. With an all-white ticket on the GOP side, the Commies have a good chance to recover some of that lost ground on purely racial propaganda.

Polls have also shown that enthusiasm among Black voters for Obama has waned and the likely voter turnout will not be as high in 2012 as it was in 2008. Ryan’s selection gives the Commies a chance to re-invigorate and re-energize that base, again purely along the lines of race and a threat to welfare entitlements.

THE GOP HOPE

The GOP will again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory UNLESS it breaks tradition and goes on OFFENSE, quickly adopts and organizes grassroots tactics and spends every penny it has exposing Obama with no holds barred.

In the just-completed Texas GOP primary for U.S. Senate, the RINO Texas Lieutenant Governor played the part of the CommieCrats. He attacked Tea Party Ted Cruz with vicious TV ads very much like what the Commies will use against the GOP ticket between now and November.

Cruz countered with a massive, Tea-Party-led grassroots effort that involved literally thousands of hours of block walking by dedicated conservatives who countered every Dewhurst advertising point in one-on- one discussions on the front porches of voters.

Though out-spent by $29 Million, the Cruz campaign pulled off a 14 percentage point win. Cruz even had campaigners at every single voting location reaching the “un-informed” voters and literally winning votes on the asphalt just outside the voting area. It worked. Grassroots work can overcome mass media every time.

I don’t know whether or not the GOP understands this. I suspect that the establishment of the party will remain the stupid party. If Obama is to be defeated in November, it will not be because the GOP did anything right. It will be because conservative activists across the country get off their asses, out of their homes and into the neighborhoods and community centers to educate the “un-informed voters” (10%) on the truth about the candidates.

CONCLUSION

Does Paul Ryan’s selection improve the GOP’s chances of winning in November? No.

I like Paul Ryan. I’ve read his bills. I think he’s smart. I think he’s a good guy.

I heard him speak at the Texas GOP Convention in Fort Worth in June. He was very informative. He was very knowledgeable. He was very boring.

The stupid party is not capable of beating Hussein Obama. They will try over and over to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If Hussein is to be defeated, it will be up to “We the People” to make it happen.

So what else is new?

HOOAH!

Posted in: 2012,Alan Vera,election,GOP,Mitt Romney,Paul Ryan,Republicans