Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Newt is the Most Electable GOP Candidate

Now that all of the candidates have been properly vetted it seems pretty clear to me that Newt is the most electable GOP candidate. That is not to say that he will have an easy time against Obama as historically it is very tough to unseat incumbents (it took a Reagan to beat the disastrous Carter and even then it was pretty close until the debate a week before the election) but he would have the best chance out of the current crop. Mitt Romney would do more to fracture the GOP than anyone else in recent history and much of the GOP base would simply stay home or vote for a 3rd party in the fall. Rick Santorum, aka Saint Rick, has a streak of social conservatism that borders on social fascism and will scare away most of the electorate. Conversely, Newt, while not perfect, can excite the base while at the same time logically convince non-conservatives of the rightness of his views. Also, many of the issues that have plagued him during the primary season (Freddie Mac, sitting on a couch with Pelosi and his opposition to cramming the Ryan plan down people's throats) won't be major issues in the fall. Now, let's go through the candidates in greater detail:

It seems like only yesterday (okay, it was last week) that people thought Rick Santorum was the Chosen One who could finally unite the base and the establishment after a primary season that has been plagued by internecine warfare. Now it seems pretty clear that he is a divider, not a uniter and has as close to a zero chance of actually winning the general election as someone can get in a major party. Instead of focusing on the economy and Obamacare, which could unite people behind both him and GOP, he has focused on such issues as the evils of contraception and prenatal diagnostics. Instead of focusing on grand themes that just about everyone can agree with (and requiring the other side to point out why one group or another would stand to lose), he just outright offends people all by himself, doing the Democrats work for them. He is someone who offends gays, women, parents, protestants and libertarians (in total about 80-90% of the electorate). And I'm not talking about some gaffe taken out of context, I'm talking about actual beliefs that he vigorously defends. Also, at a time when people are pretty much miserable, he decides to focus his energy on attacking things that people actually like. He has railed against both gambling and porn, using left wing statist reasoning in the process:

America is suffering a pandemic of harm from pornography. A wealth of research is now available demonstrating that pornography causes profound brain changes in both children and adults, resulting in widespread negative consequences... Rick Santorum believes that federal obscenity laws should be vigorously enforced.

So because "scientific studies" say something may be bad, we need government officers telling us what we can and cannot watch in the privacy of our own homes? Isn't that the same logic that led us to all those horrid environmental regulations?

I just really don't think Americans want some sort of moralist telling them they are being naughty all the time and taking away some of their cherished vices. Also, what is the point of kicking someone out of office because he thinks government knows best with another guy who thinks government knows best?

Romney, also, is unelectable for the simple reason that he completely horrifies the base. I would estimate that a good 10-15% of the base would simply stay home if he is the nominee or vote for a 3rd party. It's pretty clear that he won't repeal Obamacare, he wants to raise the job-killing minimum wage, and has a terrible record as Governor. You would think that some of his non-conservative views would endear him to independents but it appears he is in the midst of losing them as nobody likes a candidate who doesn't believe in anything and doesn't seem to care about the poor very much. He also is in danger of chasing away the Reagan Democrats as he is exactly the type of candidate that repelled them away from the GOP before Reagan came to town. He is an out of touch mushy moderate who has zero in common with them.

Finally, the clearest evidence that he is unelectable is that despite the fact that he spent more in January than all the other GOP candidates combined (a whopping $32.6 million!) and had a massive organizational advantage, he still lost most of the races this primary season. What do you think will happen when there is a level playing field and he has no financial or organizational advantages. You got it. He will lose.

Now on to Newt. While he has been absolutely vilified by the GOP establishment and the Romney campaign, there has really been nothing that has been brought up that is an election killer. In fact, many of the issues will simply go away in the fall. Freddie Mac? Let's see Obama bring that up when he received over $126,000 in bribes, err I mean donations, from Fannie and Freddie while he was in or seeking office (he was the #2 largest recipient in Congress, #1 was the notoriously corrupt Chris Dodd). Nancy Pelosi? Let's see Obama make an issue out of that one or Newt's opposition to cramming down the Ryan plan. Sure, Newt will make some gaffes but usually he makes gaffes that are logically defendable (e.g. poor kids should be given work at school, his space comments) , unlike Santorum's claim that protestant churches have been infiltrated by Satan.

Newt also has great potential to unite the party. Economic conservatives like him because he balanced the budget and reformed welfare. Defense hawks like him because he is the most hawkish of the lot. Social conservatives, when they can get past his personal life, like him for his strong record on issues like abortion. Even libertarians can live with him because although he is thoroughly conservative, he isn't over the top on social issues. Romney won't make any of these groups happy. And Santorum, while clearly a social conservative and a defense hawk, is not as economically conservative as you would think and outright hates libertarians. This is a problem because libertarians and libertarian-leaners probably make up 40-50% of the party.

Also, unlike Romney and Santorum, Newt can actually explain the ideas of conservatism in an eloquent manner that might actually convince people to come over to the GOP as he has spent a lifetime arguing both with himself and others about those very same ideas. How could Romney every convince anyone to be a conservative when he isn't one himself? How can Santorum keep people interested when he constantly comes across as a joyless moralist?

Newt's biggest flaw seems to be the perception that he is erratic, that he doesn't have the temperament to be President. Did you know that Reagan once told an ally who had betrayed him "I should have shoved it [the bat hanging on the wall] up your a*s and broken it off!" Or that he called hecklers "stupid" during one of his speeches because they interrupted him? Or that he would throw his glasses when he got upset during meetings? He seemed to do pretty well.

And one final point on Newt. He has done what he has done without any establishment support and even less money and organization. Now imagine, if he were the nominee, what he could do with the full force of the RNC and other GOP affiliated organizations behind him.

Hence, I remain 100% with Newt and believe he is our best chance at winning in the fall and reversing Obama's destructive agenda.

Cross posted from libertarian neocon's blog.


PolitiJim hits another one over the wall in center field!

Thank you very much except...It is a Libertarian Neocon post. (And I agree. It's excellent).

Libertarian Neocon. I went to your blog. I join you in not wanting the world to go to hell. I agree that New is the most electable. In fact, I am convinced that if NEwt wins the nomination, we will win in the fall election.

I left a comment with some of this over at Legal Insurrection. This makes some of the same points. It's time to step up.

As Americans, we're born free. Once we’re clear about that, and keyed in on what we love, and that the SOB’s are trying to take it ALL AWAY, we can begin to fight with courage and determination.

Each American citizen who cares about whether there will be jobs in the future, money in our pockets, safety and a strong country, manufacturing like we used to have, and the right to act like citizens and not subjects, must step up.

Newt is ready right now. Newt is ready. And the organization is forming up around Newt. So how do we defeat these miserable statist would-be tyrants? Listen to Newt’s CPAC 2012 speech and FIND OUT THE PLAN.

Newt’s plan, essentially, IS the American People. Listen as NEwt addresses the Oklahoma legislature:

If we fail to act, then the terrible thing will have come to pass, that a foolish people will have allowed themselves to be put under tyranny.

I am sick and tired of feeling helpless when we elect conservatives, or so we think, and nothing changes. The reason Newt's PLAN will work is it calls for a mobilization of the American People.

We will elect the White House, the House and the Senate ALL AT ONCE.

WE THE PEOPLE will know EXACTLY what we’re doing. It will all be in writing by October 1, 2012. We will have a clear agenda of the laws that they will pass, many signed the FIRST DAY. Restore Liberty. Repeal tyrannical laws and nonsensical government interference.

Here is NEwt describing a brand-new approach, calmly and without notes. "A WHOLE NEW APPROACH TO AMERICAN ENERGY: RENEWED ECONOMY, MONEY IN YOUR POCKET"
 - February 19, 2012 - 28:59

The time to find this out is NOW. The election is NOW.

Because if Newt is the nominee, we will win this fall.

And then we can get to work restoring the America of the Constitution, the America we were born into. Picture how good that will feel!

Once you’re clear, you can sign up at The people are marvelous. Put a comment up at the Public Square to find your state leaders. People will respond and help you.

WE CAN DO THIS. High morale is a function of knowing what we’re fighting for.

“THE NAME ON THE FRONT IS A HELL OF A LOT MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE ONE ON THE BACK.” It’s time for us to begin to play like champions. We’re skating for the United States of America.
 Remember this?

Hi again, libertarian neocon --

also, I've added your blog to my high-end personal blog empire bookmark real estate, right next to PolitiJim's , in the most exclusive neighborhood of blogtastic excellence.

I will be adding you to my reading universe. Thanks for your great article!

I'm glad you liked it! I'm really keeping my fingers crossed that Newt can pull this one out. I listen to him and I honestly think that he is our only hope. Unfortunately history has shown that the best candidate for the country doesn't always win (in my cynical moods I would say they rarely win).

OK, then I'll just have to change my sports metaphor:

"It's a fast-break alley-oop slam dunk by libertarian neocon with an assist from PolitiJim!

You guys are the James/Wade of the blogging world.

Thanks for this post. It could happen.

Hi Libertarian neocon.

Listen. With all due respect, and great appreciation for the outstanding article you wrote, I don't care what history shows.

History probably shows that Ronald Reagan didn't have much of a chance, either.

It's time to step up. I'm tired of feeling helpless. I'm tired of all the low morale I see on blog comments.

WE CAN DO THIS. High morale is a function of knowing what we’re fighting for.

Look at "MIRACLE ON ICE." Did the Russians send the American skaters friendly notes of encouragement? Of course not. They tried to psyche the Americans out. The Russians acted like bullies. And it had been working for them until Herb Brooks came along.

Do you have people you love, and you'd rather have them be able to get a job and live the life they choose in freedom? Then it's time to start looking at
1.) what we want
2.) why we want it. Period.

Do you want to live free? Then watch "2012: VICTORY OR DEATH."

This is not about Newt. This is not about you or me or any other one person. this is about America. This is about MOBILIZING the American People to cast off nanny-state crypto-communist statist bullies.

This is about whether America will continue as a beacon of potential and actual freedom for humans upon this planet. "Shall government of the people, by the people and for the people perish from the earth."

“THE NAME ON THE FRONT IS A HELL OF A LOT MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE ONE ON THE BACK.” It’s time for us to begin to play like champions.

Libertarian neocon, we’re skating for the United States of America.
 Remember this?

You wrote a really, really good article. It deserves to be read far and wide.

Now it's time to watch "2012: VICTORY OR DEATH," and remember those who have sacrificed for our freedoms, some who died so that we might live in freedom. And we need to become absolutely determined to get NEwt the nomination. All else depends upon that.

The election is NOW. Because if Newt is the nominee, we are going to win this fall.

And then we will restore our freedom, strength, prosperity and the future for our kids. And America will be an example of how a free society can provide the opportunity for a good life and a chance to make a better life for our children.

And that is what just about every human who ever lived wants.

Watch Newt's 2012 CPAC speech again and look at the transcript t this link and think about what it would be like to restore our freedoms and have money in our pockets and some excitement about the future again.

Screw what history shows. We're MAKING history.

Hopechange, When I said I was 100% with Newt, I meant it. I've watched all the speeches you mentioned and many many more. I really never get bored of watching him speak. I am willing to do whatever I can to promote Newt and help him win the Presidency. I'm just aware of the long odds.

Would you mind terribly if we change that to a CHICAGO BULLS friendly analogy like Rose/Deng? :)

I would suggest a Brady to Welker analogy but it still brings back painful memories from a few weeks ago.

OK, I'll give you that. (Apparently we don't agree on everything:-)

Me, too, libetarian neocon. I appreciate you responding!

Where I'm coming from is, when the odds are long, all the more reason to look only at the goal.

Our history id full o f cases where the odds were long. You must have high morale to prevail.

I"m sure you see what I mean.

Thanks again for you excellent article. Especially all the footnotes to original source materials. Very impressive.


And here’s the link to the energy plan video: NEWT: 28 MINUTES -AMERICAN ENERGY, MONEY IN YOUR POCKET

And here's Newt talking to young people after the Arizona debate.

Thank you Jim, excellent article!
I also wanted to give this link to Kevin Tharp's important piece that sets the record strait on Newt's social engineering comment. This is important. He was not against Paul Ryan's plan.Thanks again for telling the truth in this most important election in our lifetimes.

Excellent Article Allison. Thank you very much

Liberterian Neocon

WE THE PEOPLE CHOOSE NEWT... but, like you, my heart is so heavy that he just may lose... and, if he does, then we are SURE to lose this country to another 4 years of Barack Hussein Obama. There is NO POSSIBLE WAY Romney or Santorum can beat BO... who has STUNK UP our country LONG ENOUGH!!

God Bless you, PolitiJim... & God Bless AMERICA!!
I LOVE THIS BLOG!!!! You guys are terrific!!! :)

I must add, though...One major disagreement I have with your article: I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Santorum regarding the danger of pornography & that those laws should be vigorously enforced. It ruins peoples lives:turning women into objects to be used by men and vice-versa... and should I mention: CHILD PORN??? That certainly is a "cherished vice," by TOO many... it is so terribly sad.
Forget scientific data... and visit:

For God hath not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind. Fear is part of the chains they use to bind your spirit in bondage.

When someone approaches you full of fear about Obama.... you need to open your eyes. I am not saying he is a good man. He is not. But he is a MAN, not a god. MY GOD is bigger than him.

However, there are people out there who are fueling the flames of fear to build their campaign. Using FEAR like a cattle prod, they will attempt to intimidate you to "get behind Romney." Here is how I respond:

Fear and Faith cannot live in the same body! The use of fear and intimidation tactics is aimed at making you more willing to accept someone who is "not severely conservative." Read Ephesians Chapter 6. You have to able to stand.

Ok, seriously?? I am going to call FEAR PORN. What is wrong with you people?? Why are you allowing yourselves to be intimidated? Why are the Romney and Ron Paul campaigns spreading fear?? So that you will accept a candidate that is not a conservative. You can tell them right off. They have NDAA stories from Ron Paul, Allen West stories right by them, and Mitt Romney profile badges.

Do not buy into the Paul fear spin and the Romney fear spin (today it is Eric Holder on the Supreme Court). This is how they intend to "herd" people into their campaign. They sometimes post from web sites that "appear" Tea Party, but are clearly too well funded and too well "groomed" to be something set up by "some guy," (TPN?) They will argue to accept a moderate to stop a Marxist.

That has never worked. History teaches otherwise, particularly in the case of Barack Obama. Clinton couldn't stop Obama and she was a liberal. Neither could other liberals. They can't articulate the position well enough to respond.

We need a clear conservative.

Please watch this and prayerfully consider joining us.
Face book Group Santorum and Newt Supporters Unite

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