I’ve been desiring to weigh in on the whole, “is it all over for Newt,” thing for a couple of weeks. It’s not. By a long shot. My Louisiana friends have a word “a little bit of this, a little bit of that.” Which is what this post is: lagniappe. (Spelling courtesy of naturalized Cleveland cajun, Beth Pepoy) So let me stir you up a PolitiJim dish of data on why Newt is still “in” this, and why those of us who support him must continue to do so.
I get a kick out of all the Santorum robots who are now calling for Newt to get out of the race when they reacted to requests for Rick’s recusal as blasphemy against the Holy Suffrage. But NOW it’s different because blah, blah, blah… I’m beginning to see why the same people who think Santorum is a “principled conservative” are so devoted to him. Hypocrites Unite!!
Ingredient #1: Gingrich is correct in having doubts about Santorum’s electability. We kept hearing how Santorum could get the blue collar or independent vote because of his Pennsylvania rust belt cred. And in this, (finally) Santorum has been honest. He is getting precisely the same result he did in 2006. Losses. The only reason he was competitive in Michigan it turns out is because Democrats voted for him to protect Obama. If his whole message of “I don’t compromise my conservative values but still get elected by Independents” thing was real, shouldn’t he have smashed Romney in Ohio? The truth is that even if he didn’t frighten and alienate non-religious voters, his duplicity and lies of convenience will only continue to make him weaker and more unelectable as the mainstream media vets him. The “principled conservative of values” sent out a robocall in Michigan to Democrats, attacking Romney from the left for being against the Obama auto industry, while outright lying about his own support of bailouts for the steel industry. (Where is the outcry from Rush Limbaugh and conservatives who falsely claimed Gingrich was attacking Romney on Bain, by the way?)
What does this have to do with Gingrich’s viability?
Securing treasures by a lying tongue is a vapor driven to and fro; those who seek them seek death. Prov 21:6
I think the “modern translation” or PolitiJim Bible would say, “Heavenly Homey don’t play that.” Rick Santorum is not just a politician, he’s a hypocritical lying one. (And if you think I’m being too hard or unfair look here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, or here. Just to name a few.) One thing I’ve learned as a committed Jesus freak; God won’t let you get away with ANYTHING if you claim you work for Him. (Can I get an “amen” backsliders?) My only question is whether religious conservatives will have the good sense to get off the Rick Y2K train before God derails it, or if we will all have to pay for their blind eye to his “real character” with 4 years of Obama as political penance. It is clear from the news of the past month, Santorum could never position himself to be the “economic answer” or America in their eyes. The Democrats are smart to not attack Santorum too overtly to have a weaker opponent against Obama. And now that Romney is leading Santorum by 12 points, it’s clear the Santorum surge has subsided for lack of substance.
Ingredient #2: Santorum won’t be protected by the conservative media much longer. The ONLY reason Santorum rose in the polls, was due to the suspended conservative convictions of Michelle Malkin, Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham and the rest. Just as the MSM protected Obama, the Conservative media is protecting Rick. The fact that Limbaugh could impact the stock market price of Carbonite is proof of his influence. When he said after Florida that “Santorum is the only remaining conservative in the race,” it merely amplified and substantiated the lie begun by Ann Coulter that Gingrich was not conservative or electable. (Remember, most conservatives still overlooked her Christie infatuation since he really wasn’t running – thinking perhaps it was just a media ploy. It wasn’t until she tried to sell Romney and RomneyCare, that most had a revelation she was off the reservation. And this was AFTER her false narrative on Newt.)
I suspect the gross negligence by Malkin, Ingraham and Will, regarding Gingrich’s true record, was tainted by their inability to see clearly past - or forgive - his past martial sins. Whatever the reason, with only half hearted attempts by others in the media who attempted to set the record straight, the false impression stuck. And whether we like it or not, even a large number of conservatives make up their mind by information cascade or confirmation bias. We experienced it in spades from our own conservative bloggers who took the lies of Elliot Abrahams without question and promoted it on their blogs. (Many NEVER wrote a retraction or apology continuing to let their readers think it was truth. Remember when the Soviets did this?) Ever wonder how Dick Morris went from saying, “Rick Santorum has a uniquely unlikeable personality,” to “I think he can beat Barack Obama?” Did Santorum suddenly become possessed by the spirit of smiling Joel Osteen? Vesty has truly gotten a bit less shrill, but his arrogance and condescension certainly haven’t disappeared as the residents of Guam learned this week. Just like Alinsky, Adolph or Marx if conservatives repeat a lie enough about “conservative values” or “principle” often enough, even non-Germans will believe it.
The sudden rise in the polls is what Ulstermann Report calls it “pump and dump,” but that is too conspiratorial (even for me) when our own conservative media distorts the even basic facts like when “evangelical leaders” didn’t unanimously choose Santorum. Rally around the Rush all you want, he is sabotaging this election just as he did in 2008. As did Beck (and is now doing) as explained in this excellent piece at GulagBound by Arlen.
Three immutable dynamics are now in play:
- Rick Santorum won’t quit being himself,
- These conservatives truly do have a core that points due “Truth,”
- Newt Gingrich is the real only true generator of inspirational ideas and liberal slap back.
Sarah Palin’s acknowledgement she voted for Newt in the Alaska poll is a MUCH bigger deal than it would seem. There are still significant numbers of Palinistas that are enamored enough of her to not go against a direction she takes, and some will even rethink their support for Santorum. More importantly, it gives cover for those who aren’t quite comfortable with the Santorum spell to give Newt a bit more consideration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Levin, Tammy Bruce and the stalwart Sarah media icons subtly shift a bit more in Newt’s direction giving him some media room to breathe.
Just as the real George Bush was revealed in 9/11, I still have a sense that some national or international event will spotlight such a contrast between not only Newt’s depth of knowledge and know how, but also the Presidential “air” that Santorum just doesn’t have in him. Either another terrible Santorum social gaffe or a Gingrich gauntlet of rhetoric could once again propel him to South Carolina-like resurgence.
Ingredient #3: Santorum may not be eligible. I have written many times that the NEW third rail of politics - (aka the Birth Certificate) is not as much an instrument of electrocution as it is electrifying voter popularity. The numbers clearly show that The Donald’s popularity was directly attached to Americans “amen-ing” a public figure expressing what millions knew about the Usurper. Newt’s take down of the media was similarly responsible for his rise(s). When ANY candidate addresses what even the conservative media has been too cowardly to confront, the public reaffirms support immediately whether it is media bias, Obama’s pro-infanticide positions or – as Trump experienced – truth on Obama’s past. Now that Judicial Watch and Sheriff Joe Arpaio have concluded that Obama does not qualify as a “Natural Born Citizen” and has likely committed at least two felonies respectfully, this subject is ensured to finally make mainstream news when the first patriot judge is willing to find that Obama should not be on the ballot in some state. (For those who haven’t done the research on the “natural born citizen” issue – Constitutional Scholar Mario Apuzo’s blog will settle this for you once and for all. A good starting point is the summary of his legal brief for the state of Pennsylvania.)
If Gingrich was to take up results of Sheriff Joe’s investigation (who endorsed Perry who endorsed Gingrich), the race could turn overnight. Here is something to note as well: Gingrich, Romney and Paul have all provided complete documentation to prove they are indeed US citizens born to parents who were BOTH at least naturalized US citizens. Santorum has now consistently resisted both public and private requests for full documentation. If Gingrich or the conservative press makes an issue of this (paging Romney’s SuperPAC), and if Santorum can not produce it – there is no way that the 70%+ of GOP voters who consider this a Constitutional travesty with Obama will simply give the supposed “Constitutional conservative of principle” a pass. Just as the general population will not abide a preacher caught up in promiscuity, Republicans will run from Rick faster than you can say “accuser number 4.”
Ingredient #4: Newt is not that far behind. Delegates today: Romney 404, Santorum 161, Gingrich 105. The Santorum campaign spokesman tried to say that because Newt got 7% in Michigan, and Santorum lost by 4%, that Romney could have been defeated if Newt had gotten out. Really? Forget for a minute some of those Newt people simply might not have gone to the polls. What in God’s green earth makes anyone think that Santorum would automatically be given 60% of Gingrich voters over Romney? In fact, Gingrich attracts non-religious voters much more than Santorum does, suggesting a fair amount would have gone to Romney. Here’s a shocker. American voters think of Santorum as terribly less “intelligent” than Romney and TWICE as stupid.
I for one am so convinced that since Santorum has nearly the same lack of character, and none of the charisma of Romney, I’d rather have a shot beating Obama with a moderate, than a cultural idiot like Santorum who has almost no appeal to mainstream America. Even if Santorum could get elected, I see no evidence that a one time Senator in his 50’s, with multiple lobbying ties, questionable eligibility and no executive experience could actual effectively LEAD as President. (Hmmm. That description sounds oddly like the Santorum too!)
Where was I? Oh yeah. Take a look at the popular vote totals between Santorum and Gingrich. They are separated by less than 2% of the vote.
|Iowa||Jan 3||29,805||29,839||16,163||26,036||Santorum +34|
|New Hampshire||Jan 10||97,591||23,432||23,421||56,872||Romney +40,719|
|South Carolina||Jan 21||168,123||102,475||244,065||78,360||Gingrich +75,942|
|Florida||Jan 31||776,159||223,249||534,121||117,461||Romney +242,038|
|Nevada||Feb 4||16,486||3,277||6,956||6,175||Romney +9,530|
|Minnesota||Feb 7||8,240||21,988||5,263||13,282||Santorum +8,706|
|Colorado||Feb 7||23,012||26,614||8,445||7,759||Santorum +3,602|
|Maine||Feb 11||2,373||1,136||405||2,258||Romney +115|
|Michigan||Feb 28||409,899||377,521||65,016||115,712||Romney +32,378|
|Arizona||Feb 28||238,320||136,932||81,303||43,751||Romney +101,388|
|Wyoming||Feb 29||822||673||165||439||Romney +149|
|Washington||Mar 3||19,111||12,089||5,221||12,594||Romney +6,517|
|Georgia||Mar 6||233,307||176,080||424,976||58,982||Gingrich +191,669|
|Ohio||Mar 6||456,205||445,697||175,375||111,093||Romney +10,508|
|Tennessee||Mar 6||154,911||205,012||132,072||49,801||Santorum +50,101|
|Virginia||Mar 6||158,205||0||0||107,491||Romney +50,714|
|Oklahoma||Mar 6||80,291||96,759||78,686||27,572||Santorum +16,468|
|Massachusetts||Mar 6||265,110||44,255||16,990||35,037||Romney +220,855|
|Idaho||Mar 6||27,514||8,115||940||8,086||Romney +19,399|
|North Dakota||Mar 6||2,691||4,510||962||3,186||Santorum +1,324|
|Alaska||Mar 6||4,285||3,860||1,865||3,175||Romney +425|
|Vermont||Mar 6||23,866||14,214||4,926||15,277||Romney +8,589|
Update: The RNC confirms that Gingrich leads Santorum in actual ASSIGNED delegates 107 to 95 with many caucus delegates still to be elected in later months. If there is a swing in support toward Gingrich or away from Santorum, even the projected 60+ delegate lead, it is speculated Santorum will hold after these could shrink or disappear. (h/t Stanley Kober aka @71542)
This stunningly bad campaigner with no national presence or infrastructure not only failed to qualify for 18 delegates in Ohio, but he has screwed up in Illinois, Washington and D.C. At least Gingrich campaign that barely missed out in Virginia (unlike Santorum that didn’t come close,) immediately put in place procedures to ensure no more use of “outsourced ballot” firms and is competitive in every state. And somehow we think this guy can run the great country in the world with problems buried in every corner? Even Obama didn’t have this problem.
Libertarian Neocon (@LibNeocon) has a great post about the plausible chances for either Santorum or Gingrich to overtake Romney in the delegate count. It won’t make you all goose-pimply but it shows a way. Unlike him however, I suspect on a second vote in a brokered convention in July of 2012, things might look different than they do today. The prospect of the damage Obama will do in a second term will be much more heightened with increased OWS violence, continued economic collapse worldwide and many other news events we can’t imagine. I think it is clear that Romney delegates would break for Gingrich before Santorum, and Santorum delegates would break for Gingrich before Romney. It all comes down to who they either hate or fear in light of an immediate general election. Here is a Gingrich advisor explaining the math of how they can get to a convention with a lead. (h/t to Obama-nation)
Ingredient #5: Divine Intervention. Now for the secular conservatives who read PolitiJim, I understand this one is harder for you to stomach. (I’ll go have a beer with you regardless, but know I’m praying for you to ask Jesus to make Himself real to you so you don’t go to hell either. I’m a compassionate Christian conservative after all.)
Bible believing Jews and Christians recognize a formula of how God works. It is simple:
- A Great Dream or Promise is Given to put things right.
- The Quest for that Dream seems increasingly unlikely and futile.
- Just when all seems impossible, the Promise is miraculously achieved.
Screenwriters know this is what is called “classical story structure.” Every single optimistic, heartwarming, or inspiring movie is a variation on this theme. Christians and Denver Bronco fans only differ from their faithless counterparts in placing the credit at the feet of God, human effort or coincidence. It is why both are equally thrilled with Timmy Tebow in time, because something yearns in us for the wrongs to be made right, injustices to be judged righteously and for the “good” to prevail. America especially identifies with this because we WERE not only underdogs, but the equivalent of under-Yorkshire Terriers or under-Chihuahuas.
I believe in miracles. I’ve seen too many in my own life and have seen undeniable documentation of it. Preacher Bill Yount says miracles need these ingredients:
- You are loosing. (√check).
- You are patient and calm under pressure. (√check)
- You are overlooked and rejected. (√check)
- You continue to believe. (√check)
If this was all that was needed, my Chicago Cubs would be World Series Champions about 103 times. It also requires God to move on your behalf. You can believe God will turn your 1980 Ford Pinto into a Lamborghini all you want. But if He hasn’t PROMISED He would do it, it wouldn’t happen. (And if you give up believing, it won’t either.)
Could Newt be “destined” to be President? Newt gets slammed because he is perceived to be arrogant, especially about his ability and calling. I covered here the epiphany he had on the battlefields of Verdun, France where:
"I got active in this business of politics and self-government in 1958, when my father, who was serving in the U.S. Army, took us to the battlefield of Verdun." The boy stared at the bone pile left by the great battle, and "over the course of the weekend, it convinced me that civilizations live and die by, and that the ultimate margin in a free society of our fate is provided more by, elected political leadership than by any other group. That in the end it's the elected politicians that decide where we fight and when we fight and what the terms of engagement are, and what weapons systems are available." That awakening, he says, led to a 180-page term paper on the balance of world power. When he turned in the paper, he informed his teacher that his family was being transferred to Fort Benning, Georgia, where he would become a Republican congressman.
Unbelievable! The nerve of a 15 year old to tell his teacher he would become a congressman someday!!
In 1994, the Atlanta Journal Constitution ran an interview with the former Speaker quoting him that he had a “sense” that our civilization was headed toward destruction the likes of socialist Germany. Like:
Like many of the larger-than-life figures this former history professor has studied and admired, Gingrich says his destiny is to save modern America.
"I don't want my country to collapse. I don't want my daughter and wife raped and killed. I don't want to see my neighborhood destroyed."
But don't other politicians, even Democrats, share these goals? Why don't other people see the same urgency? "They don't personalize it. I see Auschwitz and I see my children, my mother, my wife. These are real people; these are not abstractions."
Why does he believe it is his job to save America? "From the absence of an alternative. I am more afraid of a future in which I failed to try to do what I thought was my duty than I am of a future in which I tried to do it."
So he’s just an ego manic right? Intent on world domination. Crazy stuff! He actually said “People like me are what stand between us and Auschwitz!” WHAT?! How can we possibly trust a guy who thinks he is so important?? If we were on our way there, we would have a government that hated Israel and death panels for the infirmed as Nazi Germany did….. uh oh.
Would you have imagined the following happening in the past 15 years?
- The government nationalizes major banks.
- The government nationalizes 1/6th of the US economy.
- The courts refuse to hear evidence the President forged documents to get into office.
- The government openly falsifies employment and economic information
- The government gives money to other countries to develop oil fields, while eliminating 100,000 exiting jobs and prohibiting 100,000 pending jobs by building a simple pipeline.
- The courts find displaying banners of Buddha is ok, but not a Jewish or Christian God
- The current administration blatantly ignores subpoenas to turn over documents documenting that they sent firearms to Mexican drug lords that killed American law enforcement, so that they could engineer a destruction of the right to bear arms.)
- The Department of Justice refuses to prosecute armed militant Black Panthers from deterring voters at a phone booth, but files lawsuits against 2 states to stop them from enforcing voting integrity.
- The government passed a law to detain American citizens, and already killed one without ANY due process. (Sorry kids, Allen West was as dead wrong on NDAA as he was in voting with Boehner on the budget ceiling compromise.)
- American citizens would willingly pass through fake checkpoints and endure physical invasions of privacy for the sake of “security” desensitizing Americans to law enforcement infringement of civil rights.
- American citizens would be under a $5,000 fine to tell the government their physical well being, name and address, sources of income, if you owned your home or had a mortgage on it, and even if – no kidding – they have problem concentrating.
Yeah, what was Gingrich talking about?? No way you could say America isn’t as free as it was in 1994, right?
Want some more freak out fodder? Listen to this interview with a Soviet KGB strategist from 1985 who describes the 40 year effort to change America from a capitalist country to a socialist one. Key points:
- They will take over the universities with Marxism
- They studied and enacted other countries besides America to change perception of reality for every American so that they can no longer come to sensible conclusions about morality, defense and culture.
- He was shocked how thorough the de-moralization (morality) was successful exceeding expectations of Soviet leaders.
So Gingrich knew at 15 he was going to be a Congressman SPECIFICALLY to stop totalitarianism. At 30 he knew he would take back control from the liberal Democrats allowing the Soviets and Communism to walk all over us. At 40 he knew he would enact into law more conservative legislation (and removal of liberal legislation) than had been accomplished in the previous 80 years.
So who are we to doubt And at 55 he knew he wasn’t done?
I know God loves this country. Even one time “deist” Benjamin Franklin acknowledged this by saying,
I've lived, Sir, a long time, and the longer I live, the more convincing Proofs I see of this Truth — That God governs in the Affairs of Men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without his Notice, is it probable that an Empire can rise without his Aid? We have been assured, Sir, in the Sacred Writings, that except the Lord build the House they labor in vain who build it. I firmly believe this, — and I also believe that without his concurring Aid, we shall succeed in this political Building no better than the Builders of Babel: We shall be divided by our little partial local interests; our Projects will be confounded, and we ourselves shall become a Reproach and Bye word down to future Ages.
Personally, I have long seen the recapture of the House of Representatives by the GOP, and the Contract With America by Speaker Gingrich as his “lion” and “bear” that preceded King David’s battle with Goliath. He even has the regret, repentance and spiritual renewal that the writer of Psalms had in his personal indiscretions.
And if God still loves America, it would be just like him to use an imperfect vessel to once again let her be free. No other candidate has come close to the past effort that is needed to turn back tyranny. Certainly none of them but Newt have been planning how to do it since they were 15 years old.